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Top-Tier Real Estate: 2024 Fall State of Luxury Report



Canada’s housing market continues to balance the effects of population growth and declining mortgage rates against
a slowing economy, rising geopolitical tensions, and wavering consumer confidence, resulting in a luxury market that remains steady, but reflected limited growth in the third quarter of 2024. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Fall 2024 State of Luxury Report, the luxury condominium market in two of Canada’s major urban centres, Toronto and Vancouver, have shifted into buyers’ territory with prices stabilizing as supply outstrips demand. While demand for luxury single family homes has remained resilient, overall market dynamics have evolved to better favour homebuyers in these two key markets, creating advantageous conditions for purchasing luxury homes in cities typically renowned for hyper-competition.

“In recent years, the demand for upward housing mobility across the conventional and luxury housing markets of Canada’s largest cities has risen to all-time highs. However, these aspirations have been out of reach for many Canadians due to skyrocketing housing prices and intense competition for available property inventory. This fall, homebuyers and investors are set to encounter some of the most favourable conditions in years for purchasing or upgrading their homes as top-tier property listings supply increases, interest rates decline, and housing prices stabilize or even decrease in certain communities. This trend is especially evident in the once fiercely competitive markets of Vancouver and Toronto, as well as across the luxury condominium sector,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Although we expect the luxury market to remain largely stable in the coming months, over the longer term, there is no doubt that population growth will intensify competition for housing. Further, rising building costs and ongoing bureaucratic and policy barriers will only discourage construction. This means that there is an opportunity to take advantage of the favourable homebuying conditions we are seeing today.”

According to Don Kottick, it has taken the better part of a year for Canada’s luxury real estate to absorb the effects of multiple interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, as homebuyers in this segment are typically insulated from rate changes as they utilize cash reserves and strong financial positions. However, the cumulative effect of interest rate cuts has permeated market sentiment, instilling confidence and spurring transactions among those who wish to capitalize on elevated inventory levels and variable interest rates, or preparation for strategic real estate transactions in the months ahead. Should additional rate reductions take place before year-end, pre-transactional activity is likely to translate into a substantial boost in sales.

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Toronto
In the country’s largest luxury real estate market, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), overall residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) remained consistent year-over-year between July 1–August 31, with a nominal uptick of 3%. Although single family home sales over $4 million saw a modest 4% annual improvement, $4 million-plus condominium sales fell 25% from last summer’s levels. GTA residential sales over $1 million were down 11% year-over-year over the summer months. Preliminary fall activity indicates similar trends ahead, as $4 million-plus residential sales in the GTA saw an annual increase of 9% between September 1–30. During this period, single family home sales over $4 million were up 9% year-over-year, while one condominium sold over $4 million, on par with September 2023. GTA residential sales over $1 million remained in balance with a 2% year-over-year uptick this September.

Vancouver
Sales activity softened across Vancouver’s luxury real estate market in the third quarter, as high housing prices and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming provincial election dampened consumer confidence. From July 1–August 31, luxury residential sales over $4 million fell 13% short of summer 2023 levels, with $4 million-plus single family home sales down 16% year-over-year, while seven $4 million-plus condominiums sold compared to six sold last summer. Overall, residential sales over $1 million were down 15% year-over-year during this time. Uneasy consumer sentiment was reflected in September activity, as residential sales over $4 million fell 52% from September 2023 levels. Single family home sales over $4 million were down 48% year-over-year, and there were no sales of condominiums over $4 million compared to two sales in the previous September. $1 million-plus residential sales saw an annual decline of 31% overall.

Montreal
In contrast, top-tier property sales in Montreal improved through the summer months across all residential housing types, condominiums, attached and single family homes, and sales collectively surged to close the third quarter of 2024 with strong gains across the $1 million-plus market. Although there were five sales over $4 million between July 1–August 31, down from nine properties sold over the previous summer, sales over $1 million were up 15% year-over-year. September sales data reflects a market poised for improved activity, as $1 million-plus residential sales soared 83% year-over-year, while two properties sold over $4 million, compared to three transactions in September 2023.

Calgary
Calgary’s luxury market performance continued to surpass major cities across Canada in the third quarter of 2024, as gains in population from immigration and in-migration boosted demand across all residential housing types. Between July 1–August 31, $1 million-plus sales climbed 31% year-over-year, with one property sold over $4 million, on par with seasonal levels recorded each year between 2021–2023. September luxury sales activity foreshadows an active and healthy market ahead. With $1 million-plus sales up by 15% year-over-year, and with two properties sold over $4 million between September 1–30 compared to a quiet $4 million-plus market in September 2023, Calgary is poised for healthy activity in the months ahead.

*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.

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Simply the Best: The Food Artisans Creating Sought-After Treasures

It’s fall on Fogo Island, and men standing on small fishing boats brave the cold North Atlantic waters to pull out fat, glistening Wild Northern Cod using a handline — the way the fish has been caught in these small communities for 400 years. One line, one hook, one fish. This sustainable fishing method produces minimal by-catch and guarantees a superior product. The traditional way of fishing has made a comeback, thanks in part to Shorefast, a social, not-for-profit enterprise with the mission of preserving the island’s cultural heritage and economic development. The Fogo Island Fish fishers are paid a premium for their superior catch. The cod — along with crab, shrimp and more — is processed on the island by the Fogo Island Co-operative Society before being shipped to high-end restaurants through distribution partners. Because Fogo Island Fish is weather (and human) reliant, quantities are limited and vary greatly from year to year, a factor that contributes to making them even more appealing to the fine dining chefs in Toronto, Ottawa and Calgary who have come to appreciate the inimitable flavour and texture of the buttery catch.

From Newfoundland to British Columbia, enthusiasm for superior quality food like Fogo Island’s fish, is palpable. Restaurants willing to pay a premium for quality products are met with diners who are happy to do the same, knowing that what’s on their plate is sustainably produced with care by people who are passionate about their craft.


Founded in 2004 by a couple who wanted to make a difference, Ontario’s The New Farm does just about everything by hand, from sowing and harvesting to washing and packaging its organic vegetables. This hands-on approach allows the farm to plant delicate varieties, including salad greens, heirloom potatoes, rainbow beets and Japanese cucumbers, which wouldn’t withstand the industrial processing typically reserved for such crops. Their high-quality produce, particularly their exceptional greens, sets their salad mixes apart, and the extremely short supply chain is a key factor. “We don’t harvest anything until it’s already sold,” says cofounder Brent Preston. “We get the order from 100km Foods in the evening, harvest in the morning, put it on the truck that afternoon, and it’s on the client’s plate that night or the next day.” The increasing interest over the years validates the couple’s decision to stay small and focus on quality over quantity.

Québec’s O’Citrus has also decided to prioritize quality over quantity. Vyckie Vaillancourt’s incredible project of growing citrus just north of Montréal has born plentiful fruit, pun intended. With 120 trees and 10 varieties that include yuzu and finger lime, her limited production is sold exclusively to the lucky 15 restaurants on her roster. These chefs, who pride themselves on featuring only local produce, now have the luxury of incorporating local citrus into their cuisine. O’Citrus wants to experiment with growing other varieties of citrus fruit, such as bergamot but doesn’t plan to expand to maintain the exclusivity of its premium product.


When Dominic Labelle was a cook in Montréal, he longed for access to locally grown unusual vegetables. After completing his BA in Agriculture at McGill University, he founded Parcelles, a small farm in Québec’s Estrie region, with the intention of growing vegetables exclusively for restaurants. He selected his first seeds from a catalogue, choosing what appealed to him in terms of flamboyant colours and unique shapes. What sets Parcelles apart is the cultivation of over 100 rare and unconventional varieties of vegetables and herbs. These items are exclusively served at their own farm-to-table restaurant on the premises and at approximately 15 other restaurants in Montréal, all proudly showcasing their provenance. Some vegetables, the puntarelle, a variety of Italian chicories, have gained a certain mystique around town, attracting chefs and crowds alike.
Un Océan de Saveurs’ sustainable seaweed is also sought after, particularly by Québec’s chefs. The 15 or so seaweeds are hand-harvested in the Gaspésie Peninsula, dehydrated and then shipped across the country to discerning chefs. Inspired by a simple question — “Why isn’t there edible sea salt made in Québec?” — Manuel Bujold Richard founded Sel Saint Laurent. The company hand-harvests salt from a depth of 200 metres in the estuary of the St. Lawrence River, where the Labrador Current carries water from the Arctic. The resulting crunchy diamond flakes are produced in limited quantities and sold to fine grocery stores and restaurants.

These specialty food purveyors share a common thread: a focus on humans rather than machines and a commitment to spending time caring for their products rather than rushing to produce more. In a world dominated by overnight deliveries and instant gratification, this return to a slower pace and quality results is refreshing.


At 8:30 am on a quiet residential street in Montréal’s Villeray neighbourhood, a line snakes around the corner, leading to the front step of a small wine shop. With the fervour of Swifties waiting to get their hands on concert tickets, these enthusiasts are here for the latest Pinard et Filles bottle. Adorned with beautiful labels created by renowned artist Marc Séguin, these distinguishable bottles are hard to come by. The artisanal winery, founded in 2011 by Catherine Bélanger and her husband, features 20 to 25 grape varieties harvested by hand and just as many vintages. “It borders on the experimental,” states Bélanger, who is also the owner and sommelier of Pullman, one of Montréal’s first wine bars to serve natural wine. “The wine season is short in Québec, and we must sometimes make spontaneous adjustments,” which means that these low-intervention bottles differ from year to year. It also makes them distinctive, interesting, and very sought after among wine lovers. Some of the more precise vin- tages rarely make it to wine shops and are mostly sold to restaurants. “We wanted to make wine for restaurants and bars from the get-go. We prefer having a passionate human being to present our product to potential clients.”

By Mayssam Samaha — *Insight: The Art Of Living Magazine – The Metamorphosis Issue.

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